Issues of Oceanview Development Corporation

Issues of Oceanview Development Corporation This report analyses the issues that Oceanview Development Corporation is facing with regards to their endeavor to bid for the property that will be sold by sealed bid at a county tax foreclosure. The two pivotal points of chance events are whether Oceanview will have the highest bid and if the referendum for the zoning change will be rejected by the voters. This is of utmost importance to Oceanview because the acceptance of the bid will require a follow up from the corporation. Otherwise, Oceanview will have a deficit of 10% of the bid as a form of penalty. Hence, Oceanview is at the dilemma of choice on the employment of a market research firm, who is capable of producing a detailed report on the sentiments of a zoning change, which is thereby valuable with respect to the decision that the corporation has to make. The purpose of this case study is to recommend Oceanview on the employment of the market research firm, and weigh the cost of the research with the expected value of the information provided by them. This will be achieved step by step with a decision tree that succinctly displays the sequence of the bidding process. Next, the possibility of entering the bid without the market research information will be explored thoroughly via various mechanisms like Optimistic and Conservative Approaches. To form a comparison for a clearer picture, the branch of conducting a market research will be analyzed. And finally, a recommendation to the employment of the market research firm will be decided by the results of the aforementioned analysis. 1.2 Findings Upon analysis of the data calculations, we concur that the optimal decision that is available to Oceanview is to bid for the property. This is supported with concrete information derived from several methods that, points only to the outcome of bidding for the property. With regards to the branch of having the availability of market research, our team has concluded that while it is an optimal approach to bid for the project when the zoning change approval is favorable, the best decision to make for an unfavorable outcome of the market research is not to bid for the property. We further concluded that by weighing the cost of the market research with the expected value of the data that can be achieved, it is ultimately a wise choice to employ the firm so as to extract more information about the zoning change. Lastly, recommendations will be given as to how we can integrate such a method of decision analysis in other businesses as well. 2. Data Collation 2.1 Decision Tree C:UsersMikePicturestree.png Figure 1: Decision Tree 2.2 Branch Probabilities Sn P(Aà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã‚ ©Sn) P(Nà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã‚ ©Sn) P(Sn|A) P(Sn|N) S1 0.3 X 0.9 = 0.27 0.3 X 0.1 = 0.03 0.27 / 0.41 0.03 / 0.59 0.6585 0.0508 S2 0.7 X 0.2 = 0.14 0.7 X 0.8 = 0.56 0.14 / 0.41 0.56 / 0.59 0.3415 0.9492 P(A) = P(N) = 0.27 + 0.14 = 0.41 0.03 + 0.56 = 0.59 Figure 2: Calculations of the Branch Probability Elements States of Nature Prior Probabilities Conditional Joint Posterior Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Sn P(Sn) P(A|Sn) P(N|Sn) P(Aà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã‚ ©Sn) P(Nà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã‚ ©Sn) P(Sn|A) S1 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.27 0.03 0.6585 S2 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.14 0.56 0.3415 P(A)=0.41 P(N)=0.59 Figure 3: Branch Probability Table 2.3 Payoff Table Payoff 12 Total Revenue Property cost Construction Expenses = $15,000,000 $5,000,000 $8,000,000 = $2,000,000 Payoff 13 Cost of forfeiting bid = 10% of $5,000,000 = -$500,000 Payoff 14 = 0 Payoff 15 = 0 Payoff 16 = 0 Payoff 17 Total Revenue Property cost Construction Expenses = $15,000,000 $5,000,000 $8,000,000 = $2,000,000 Payoff 18 Cost of forfeiting bid = 10% of $5,000,000 = -$500,000 Payoff 19 = 0 Payoff 20 Total Revenue Property cost Construction Expenses = $15,000,000 $5,000,000 $8,000,000 = $2,000,000 Payoff 21 Cost of forfeiting bid = 10% of $5,000,000 = -$500,000 Payoff 22 = 0 Payoff 23 = 0 Figure 4: Payoff Table The payoffs of the various chance events on the decision tree are labeled in pink, with the corresponding number being derived on the payoff table. 3. Recommendation when market research is not available With reference to the lower branch of the decision tree, where market research is not available(as shown in the figure below), Overview will have to make a decision of whether to bid(D1) or not to bid(D2) in the property. 4 mechanisms will be used to assist the corporation in making the decision. C:UsersMikePicturestree.png Figure 1: Decision Tree 3.1 Expected Value Method Using the Expected Value Method, we have to find out the EV(D1) and EV(D2) so as to make a comparison on the expected values of the two decisions. At node 11, State of Nature Expected Value P(S1) = 0.3 P(S2) = 0.7 $2,000,000 $-500,000 =(2,000,000*0.3) +(-500,000*0.7) =$250,000 Figure 5: Calculation at Node 11 At node 5, Decision Variables Expected Choices P(Highest Bid) = 0.2 P(Not Highest Bid) = 0.8 Value D1 $250,000 (EV of Node 11) $0 =(250,000*0.2)+(0.8*0) =$50,000 (EV of Node 8) D2 $0 $0 $0 Optimal Decision $50,000 (D1) Figure 6: Calculation at Node 5 The calculation using the expected values at node 5 has clearly shown that it is more beneficial for Oceanview to bid for the property because the Expected Value of D1 is greater than the Expected Value of D2. Hence, D1 is the optimal choice. 3.2 Optimistic and Conservative Methods Decision Outcomes of the Highest Bid Not Highest Bid Branches Optimistic (Maxi-max) Method Choices P(Highest Bid) = 0.2 P(Not Highest Bid) = 0.8 D1 =($250,000*0.2) + (0*0.8) =$50,000 $0 $50,000 D2 $0 $0 $0 Optimal Decision $50,000 (D1) At node 5, Figure 7: Optimistic and Conservative Methods Using the optimistic method, our team has discovered that the decision choice of D1 has potential of reaping higher benefits as compared to D2. However, the conservative approach shows that Oceanview will be indifferent between the two choices because they are both equal to zero. 3.3 Mini-Max Regret Method At node 5, Decision Alternative State of Nature S1 Regret S2 Regret D1 $2,000,000 $0 $-500,000 $500,000 D2 $0 $2,000,000 $0 $0 Decision Figure 8: Mini-Max Regret Method Using the Mini-Max regret method, our team has found out that the optimal choice of decision is D1, which reduces the amount of regret that Oceanview is subjected to. 3.4 Conclusion With conclusion, although the Maxi-Min produces a result of indifference between D1 and D2, the other methods all show support for D1 as the optimal decision. However, Oceanview should not base their choice solely on this result because the accuracy of the information is not known. In retrospection, the probability of Oceanview may not be 0.2 because there is a lack of information on the number of bidders at that point of time. With the uncertainty on the number of bidders, the probability of Oceanview winning as the highest bid may drop when the contest for the property increases. 4. Recommendation when market research is available 4.1 Expected Value Approach Our group will use the expect value approach to determine the course of decision to be taken. With reference to Appendix and the decision tree below, at node 4, the EV(D1) is $229,500 while EV(D2) is $0. Hence, it is logical that Oceanview should choose to bid for the property if the result from the market research is favorable. C:UsersMikePicturestree.png Figure 1: Decision Tree On the other hand, at node 5, the EV(D1) is -$74,600 while EV(D2) is $0. In other words, if Oceanview has a choice of decision, they will choose D2, not to bid in the property, when the market research result is unfavorable. 4.2 Conclusion In short, Oceanview should bid for the property when the result for the market research is favorable, and not submit the bid when the prediction is unfavorable. 5.Recommendation to whether the firm is to be employed 5.1 Expected Value Of The Sample Information Expected value of the sample information(EVSI) can be derived from the following equation of, |EVwSI EVwoSI|. The numerical answer of the equation is often compared with the cost of obtaining the sample information. To find EVwSI, the expected value with sample information, we have to find EV(2), which is equivalent to EVwSI. With reference to Appendix, EV(2) = $93,992.50 EVwoSI refers to the expected value without using sample information. In other words, it is the expected value without performing the market research. Referring back to Appendix and the decision tree, node 5 will give us the answer to EVwoSI, amounting to $50,000. Therefore, when we return to the equation, we will tabulate EVSI, which is calculated by $93992.50 $50,000 = $43,992.50. Since this value is greater than $15,000, we can conclude that EVSI is greater than the cost of performing the market research itself. Employing the market research firm will then be an optimal choice since the benefits within is more than the cost required. 6. Integration of knowledge to other business situations A decision tree is a business model that requires the logical thinking of the sequence of events and the expected values within. While the decision analysis with the various mechanisms used for calculating expected values is useful in this case of property bidding, its usage is not limited. Many situations in our daily life that requires decisions which are irreversible, needs the empowerment of the tree to lay down the bigger picture. A close example will be the decision to drill an oil field. The decision to drill an oil field is irreversible in the short run, due to the great cost of machinery usage involved. Hence, a decision tree will allow the companies involved to seek out every possible outcome, e.g. a sudden surge or drop in oil prices, and make an optimal decision. Another situation which the knowledge from the decision analysis can be used is the allocation of resources. One of the main pioneers of allocation efficiency is Vilfredo Pareto. His concept of Pareto Optimal is that we should always allocate resources of the society till a point where, we are unable to make an individual better off without making another worse off. However, how can we ensure that our allocation is efficient enough to cover the needs of everyone in the society? By using the decision analysis route, we can maximize the coverage. For instance, when Government Officials allocate the social budget, they can better envisage the ground situations by using decision analysis. In the manner, the impact of their decision can be calculated and a better allocation is ensured. The third area of business where a decision analysis has much of a use is the market penetration of a new product by a marketer. Very often at times, marketer suffers from product cannibalization, whereby the demand for that new product stripes away customers from the existing merchandizes. While we have enough data on the existing merchandizes to gauge how they will affect the demand for the new product, without decision analysis, it is almost impossible to tell on the converse relationship. With Bayers Theorem and the decision tree, it becomes easier for marketers to understand the full relationship between the new products and the existing ones and they will then make a better decision on the method of market penetration to prevent product cannibalization.

The Role of Mythology in A Tale of Two Cities

â€Å"A Tale of Two Cities† by Charles Dickens is one of the most debated and criticized novels of his career. This novel was produced in Dickens' transition stage and is considered to be trivial, poorly written, and structured. Dickens would go on to write â€Å"Great Expectations† and â€Å"Our Mutual Friends†. These novels were highlights in the bulk of his work and continue, today, to inspire authors and readers. A close reading of â€Å"A Tale of Two Cities† reveals a number of intricacies and themes which are overlooked during the initial reading.One of the most interesting of these motifs is the present of myth and more specifically the extremes of human nature. Dickens, in â€Å"A Tale of Two Cities† uses mythology, duplicity of the motherly matriarch, and symbolism to demonstration the universal human experience of good versus evil. Setting is of incredible importance in â€Å"A Tale of Two Cities† and takes place in the cities of Lo ndon and Paris. It is London which is represented as the hub of new thought and freedom. London contrasts strikingly with Paris which is overrun by the cruel aristocracy.It is within Dickens' articulate and vivid descriptions of both cities that the true them of this novel is revealed. This can been seen in the opening dialog of the book which shows images of â€Å"Light†/†Darkness,† â€Å"Heaven†/Hell, â€Å"good†/†evil† (1). Each city represents an extreme, good or evil, that has existed in the world since the beginning of time. This duplicity is continued in the two female characters through which much of the action within the novel is inspired. Lucie Manette and Madame Defarge are female characters that represent one of the two motherly matriarchs.Lucie Manette is benevolence personified and her double, Madame Defarge is malevolent. It is the struggle between these two women which brings about the good and bad that occur in the story. Just as this universal conflict has brought change throughout history. Dickens uses two specific mythologic imagery to support this motif – weaving and knitting. In the title of the second book, The Golden Thread, is when Lucie becomes associated with with weaving. Lucie is said to have golden hair and is the â€Å"thread† which holds her family together.She is dedicated to the greater good of her family and society. She nurtures all the people in her life and through this profound commitment she brings about one of the greatest transformation in literature. Carton begins this novel as an indolence and indifferent man with no direction and no values. However, through the love of Lucie he finds his purpose in life and dies a hero who will forever be embedded in the hearts and minds of those he died for. She nurses her father back to health both mentally and spiritually.She is ultimately responsible for creating a new country, building France into a strong nation with i s based not on oppression but the open sharing of ideas and the inclusion of all people. Weaving has always been associated with women, throughout history. It is implied that women weave the web of life. The Fates, the sisters who were said to determine fate in mythology were weavers and Dickens' does a good job of making the parallel to good mothers like Isis and Demeter, The second extreme of female matriarchs is that of Madame Defrage. She does not weave but she does knit.She wishes not to nurture but to destroy. Madame Defrage knits a list of the people she thinks should die when the new powers are established in France. She is so dedicated to the cause that she wants to win at any cost. She is associated with The Furies from mythology who were women who applied tortures to condemned souls. They were associated with vengeance and The Furies are personified in Madame Defrage. Through the characters of Lucie and Madame Defrage Dickens' links universal struggle of good and evil, an d mythological matriarchs through imagery.Lucie and her weaving is associated with light, life, and warmth. While Madame Defrage and her knitting are associated with darkness, death, and revenge. Through the integration of these images Dickens' makes â€Å"A Tale of Two Cities† not just a novel for entertainment but a real literary work which takes on one of the most universal themes known to mankind. I agree with this criticism. One of the first things I noticed was the mythological hints within the text. Madame Defrage is definitely evil and this is represented in her knitting.Knitting involves â€Å"cutting†, â€Å"pointing†, and â€Å"tearing†. â€Å"The fingers of the knitting women were vicious, with the experience that they could tear† (220). Madame Defrage even yells at her husband because he feels kindness toward to Lucie. Lucie is again and again seen as good. â€Å"Ever busily winding the golden thread that bound them together, weaving the service of her happy influence through the tissue of all their lives, and making it predominate nowhere, Lucie heard in the echoes of years none but friendly and soothing sounds† (209). During Darnay's trial Lucie is seen as a golden angel.I think that critics were extremely hard on Dickens for this novel. It was a book that was overlooked for many years as being badly written, poorly structured, and a literature for the masses. However, as you can see, after you really take the time to read and understanding the text there are several complex themes and motifs that Dickens takes on in a very subtle way. Perhaps Dickens wanted a novel that was both fun and also profound. He was comfortable enough with his writing skills to understand that for his messages to get across to the reader that he must first interest the reader.

Hamlet Research Paper Essay

What would you do if you had a chance to kill the man who took your father’s innocent life? This was the main conflict of Hamlet. Throughout the play, Hamlet was faced with many challenges which toyed with his deliberation on whether or not to kill his father’s murderer. His indecisiveness was characterized as a â€Å"tragic flaw† that climatically led to his death. There are many theories as to why Hamlet was unsure about killing Claudius and what took him so long to do it once he did make up his mind such as: lack of opportunity; too much thought and analysis; melancholy; Oedipus complex; doubt about the honesty of the Ghost; and doubts about his own ambitious motives. These obstacles developed the intricate plot of the play and led the main character Hamlet through a mental â€Å"hell† before his revenge was complete. Was lack of opportunity the interruption in hamlets killing of Claudius? Hamlet did not have many chances to kill Claudius privately, to avoid being seen as a monster in front of his family and friends. He was rarely alone with claudius, therefore creating the â€Å"lack of opportunity† to avenge his father’s death. When Hamlet finally catches Claudius alone, Claudius is in the middle of a prayer. Hamlet decides not to kill Claudius at this time because if Claudius is killed after repenting for his sins, he will be sent to Heaven. The last thing Hamlet wants to see is his father’s murderer rest in peace. He wants to kill Claudius as he is committing a sin so that he could be sent to purgatory just as his father was. His father was not allowed to repay for his sins so Hamlet wants Claudius to suffer just the same. It is argued that the amount of melancholy that Hamlet suffered throughout the play is actually what stopped him from killing Claudius earlier. He dealt with a great deal of depression, going through suicidal tantrums and lonely outcries. Hamlet is in a great state of grievance of his father’s death throughout the play. Claudius held this against him. He called his long period of sorrow â€Å"obstinate condolement†. He said that his sadness was unmanly. Claudius believed that emotions of this sort showed a weak heart and womanly emotions. It got to a point where Hamlet felt like he had to hold in his emotions, unable to express them without being harshly judged. In one of Hamlet’s many soliloquies he states â€Å"But break, my heart; for I must hold my tongue.† This quote fully exerts his hearts desire for someone to confide in, to listen to him and his sorrows. He knows that he cannot speak on how miserable he is because of how everyone will judge him. In a state of depression, Hamlet is viewed by his peers and family as having gone mad. His symptoms are actually hand and hand with melancholia, which could have been brought upon by Hamlet sadness and loneliness. Oedipus complex may have played a part as to why Hamlet seemed to not be able to kill Claudius. Hamlet’s love for his mother was strong, so strong that it is questioned as to whether or not his love for his mother goes deeper than a mother-child bond. Throughout the play, Hamlet often brings up how little time has passed since his father’s passing and his mother’s remarriage to his brother. His remarks on the situation are often crude and jealous-sounding. In part I scene II, Hamlet says â€Å"Must I remember? Why she would hang on him, as if increase of appetite had grown†. In this quote Hamlet speaks of hating to think of his mother and father acting intimately with one another. That is not a normal trait for a child to have. http://www.shakespeare-online.com/plays/hamlet/soliloquies/butbreak.html

The Prince and The Discourses by Niccolo Machiavelli

In the late 15th to the 16th centuries, Florence gets into a tumultuous era with the rise of some political issues and weaknesses of the state as a republic, such as the lack of seriousness with its pretensions, the vulnerability of the Italian city-state given the fragility of international alliances and the dangers of placing security in the hands of another power; being involved in a prolonged war with one of its territories, Pisa, puts Florence in an even worse situation. As a person working at the office of the second chancellery of Florence with great interest in politics, Machiavelli tries to come up with some possible solutions that could get Florence into a better situation. Through his political career as a diplomat and secretary under the regime of Piero Soderini, Machiavelli realizes how important the role of the populace is in order for the Florentine government to get close to what he thinks of as the ideal model of republican governance. Although his two books, The Pr ince and The Discourses are mainly about the expected behavior of rulers and the story of expansion of Rome, Machiavelli also contributes a big portion of his books to discuss about the types of roles that the populace should be entrusted with in a republican government. This paper will argue that being supportive of their rulers, bringing liberty to the state and contributing to the establishment of Florence as a solid republican country are the three main contributions that Florentine populaceShow MoreRelatedThe Last Days Of Socrates And Niccolo Machiavelli s The Prince And The Discourses1651 Words   |  7 Pagesand framework for political philosophy, are Plato’s The Last Days of Socrates, and Niccolo Machiavelli’s The Prince and The Discourses. Both pieces take place during political uncertainty with surrounding societal turmoil. Each take a different approach to how these issues must be dealt with. 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